Week 1 NFL Review: By The Numbers
By: Ben Lipson
Special to ProFootballGuru.com
As a follow up to the weekly NFL preview, SportsTradex.com reviews the action from featured NFL games of Week 1 in the SportsTradex prediction game. The prediction game is live and offers a unique perspective for breaking down this week of football.
This week’s featured games were:
Bengals at Bears
Packers at 49ers
Eagles at Redskins
Giants at Cowboys
Falcons at Saints
What We Knew: Winning on the road is tough in the NFL. Home teams in these 5 key games went 4-1. Before the early kickoffs on Sunday, all 5 home teams were expected to win. Only the Redskins failed to get the W on their home turf. The Bears were an underdog vs. Cincinnati earlier in the week but their chance of winning crept up to make them a favorite (51%) by the time they took the field. Throughout the season, SportsTradex will track home-road records in the NFL. Expect this to be a greater factor here than in any other sport and something that will be crucial in January.
What We Learned: There is a new sheriff in Philadelphia and his first name is Chip. For all the anticipation about the new Eagles offense, the Redskins still entered Monday night with a 65-70% chance of winning based on our projections. Entering the opener, the excitement for fast offense exceeded the belief that it would succeed. Defenses, as well as our predictive data, will take notice. The probability against the Eagles may not reach Week 1 heights for the remainder of the season.
Go For It?!: In a great NFC South battle, defenses held tough against two high-powered offenses led by elite quarterbacks. The outcome was even determined by the Saints ability to stop Atlanta on the goal line. SportsTradex gave Atlanta a 60% likelihood of scoring on 4th and goal! The combination of the Saints past defensive woes and the efficiency of the Falcons offense made Atlanta a favorite because they had the ball. Everyone has heard the theories. “Whoever has the ball last will win” or “don’t leave too much time for the other team.” While the Saints got the stop this time, the 60% number isn’t crazy. Last year, teams converted on fourth down almost exactly 50% of the time.
You can make your own projections by playing free NFL games at www.sportstradex.com And stay tuned for a Week 2 preview of all the biggest games!